Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
